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To: Voltaire who wrote (2909)	2/7/2000 11:28:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 35685

Tom Galvin quoted again on CNBC among other things, he said that January just saw the peak in TBond yields consequently, he expects stock to rally in nearterm if action last week wasnt capitulation climax, establishment of top, cleaning the brokerage houses out, then my name is not Wily Jim Willie Jackass we have an extremely confusing bond market message coming in the next several weeks... bond yield curve is inverting, which leads inept economists to kneejerk conclude a recession is coming... the inversion is a direct result of federal budget surplus paydowns remember I predicted all late autumn that shoddy economists would misread signals as ushering in an economic slowdown??? I expected post-Y2K effect to show minor sector slowdowns from oversupply reactions, since y2k snafus were non-existent (also predicted)... couple that inevitable minor slowdown from post-Y2K with federal debt paydown, and you got some dicey confusing message gauranteed to throw crappy economists a curve... expect it to cause problems Feds have now announced that $4 trillion budget surplus in the next decade will see 75% devoted to reduce the debt... personally I think it is a massive mistake to devote more than about 20-25% to debt reduction... if you manage debt as a percent of GDP, then debt is already reducing on large scale now... to pay down the debt is a turning of their back to growth prospects, and sending capital to dead sources... how about instead: - radical rise in Small Business Admin loan coffer - radical rise in university technology research grants - radical rise in training subsidies to relieve labor shortage - paying off Brazil to end their mindless destruction of rain forests - reduction of capital gains taxes - reduction of federal income taxes for wages under $40k Lazlo Birinyi just interviewed on CNBC main points: - QCOM corrected and now is reasonable - techs corrected and now are attracting money - techs are where growth is now - much more, but didnt catch it all silly me, just shoot me / Jim Willie

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