LoneStar,
Whittington's forecasts 35% growth in 2000 over 1999 and 40% for 2001, bringing the industry to the magic $300 billion mark by 2001, he predicts. Furthermore, Whittington projects additional 40% sequential growth years in 2002 and 2003, resulting in nearly $600 billion in annual chip sales three years from now, this off a base of $160 billion in 1999.
Given the the LT average of capex by the semis is apporx 20% of revs, this would imply a total market for AMAT of nearly 120B!!!! Also, since AMAT's total share is approximately 1/3 of the total market, we could be looking at a 40B company not too long from now if these projections come to fruition. This is far above any projections I have seen to date, and yes would mean an early retirement for most AMAT investors.
BTW, should AMAT get 50% of the total market, as they said they had in recent comments, we are looking at addl revs of only 20B:-0
BK |
