Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.77

+0.9%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (34069)	2/7/2000 2:35:00 PM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Well, let's start with Credit Suisse estimate about ten posts ago. If indeed AMAT hits the $2B new order rate last Q, and hits their $3B new orders in Q12001, then at the beginning of 2001 AMAT has a $12B new order run rate, so say a $12B REVENUE run rate about mid-2001. That gives then 2 years to go from $12B to $40B, so I doubt it can be done, but they could get there by 2005. Growing to $40 from now to 2005 means a lot of added capacity to the world as well as just new technology, the chip demand would have to keep expanding every year for that level of customer investment with the inherent risks. So this all presupposes a Goldilocks environment. So I'd guess 2005 more like $20-25B.

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