While I am loathe to present material that might not be of interest to this board, I think what I have to say is pertinent to present/would-be RMBS investors. At the very least, the OUM technology of Energy Conversion Devices is a legitimate near-future challenge to RMBS, and others. And, the prowess of the company is key to understanding the degree of this challenge. Further, ECD is a company that any tech-sector investor should be cognizant of. Further yet, I am rankled by some, IMO ignorant, slurs against the company by Zeev Hed. So, I am going to present my view of ECD and its many outstanding developments. Take it FWIW, but be aware that my view is entirely sincere -- and based on a lot of "digging".
Zeev:
>Wily, give me a break, Stan Ovshinski has a long history, including going through more than $200 MM of OPM (and that is just in ENER, Gardner and the public must have sunk $100 MM in OVON, now defunct, and probably another $200 MM of government money has gone down the same drain in the last 30 years or so). What does he have to show for it? Sales under $10 MM annually in ENER after more than 30 years of going through zillions of OPM. These materials have been around since the late 70', and so far they are still the "electronic materials of the future". Every so often you get another hype campaign getting few other suckers into the stock, right now it is the electric car hype. <
Zeev, I am going to keep your above statement for reference -- future laughs. The kindest short comment I can make is that it is profoundly incorrect.
First, all companies that have targeted such things as photovoltaic cells and exotic batteries have had extreme difficulties. In very large part this is because the markets for such have developed so slowly, and government subsidies and research funds have been so fickle (though sizable, in total), that the difficult, costly developments required have prevented profits for (nearly all, all?) players.
Second, ECD has used only a small fraction of what must be many billions of dollars total spending on PV cells, exotic batteries, optical memory media, semiconductor chip memories, Hydrogen storage, and manufacturing techniques for such things. But, ECD has produced far more per dollar spent than anyone else. If not, please point out who has done better.
Third, a person has to be very unobservant, IMO, to not notice that the long-awaited markets for the subject products have finally become significant and are growing. This statement is more-or-less true depending on the particular product, but I hold that it is essentially correct. BTW, I was not one of those who invested in ECD long ago, because I correctly sensed that the markets were too far off. Now, I feel very much different about the "time table".
Zeev, I am confident in holding forth my view, below, of ECD's technical prowess and market prospects in contrast to your -- uh, uninformed -- claims of "down-the-drain-money" and continued "suckering" of investors.
The following is a modified version of something I wrote for the SI: ENER board in response to "mishedlow", who asked for some information on royalties to ECD. Bear in mind that ENER "float" is only about 13 million shares:
While the markets for ECD's products are hard to predict quantitatively, most of them appear substantial to very large -- and with uncertainties too large to cope with, if definite answers are expected. So, for my own thinking, I do not try to be very accurate or detailed -- I would just be fooling myself trying for reliable, precise numbers. Try this "wet thumb" thinking. Starting with: ECD's royalties, averaged over the licensed products, probably are about 1%. This average might well grow to 2% over time, more-or-less.
ECD's NiMh batteries. (ECD has developed absolutely the best NiMh batteries and licensed them to virtually all manufacturers of these batteries, worldwide. Their numerous patents have been challenged and upheld, even in Japan!) From memory, last year 780 million small NiMh cells were made for consumer (not auto) batteries, at about $0.50 average per cell factory price. Not all of these were with ECD tech, but the trend is quickly towards all NiMH cells being the "Ovonic" type. Since NiMh batteries have only recently begun to invade the power tool market, and since many consumers are only just now beginning to understand how excellent these batteries are, it is reasonable to assume that sales of $0.50 (average) cells will eventually reach perhaps 2 billion/yr before some other better technology burgeons (an event that may take quite some time). So, ECD's NiMh royalties might reasonably reach 10 million per year from consumer NiMh batteries. Automotive batteries? Who knows? But, ECD's NiMh batteries are currently the type chosen for most EVs and Hybrids (and scooters, mopeds, and bicycles). With the new Magnesium Hydride development by ECD (see below), the Watt-Hours/Kilogram rating of the present NiMh batteries is expected to increase by about 50%, prolonging their vitality in the various battery markets.
ECD's Optical Memory Media. (ECD developed the phase-change technology chosen by the disk industry for ALL present types of rewritable disks, CD and DVD. Many other large companies were involved in trying to achieve the best tech for rewritable disks, and huge sums were expended by them. ECD won, period.) From Wily's post of another speculative message I wrote earlier, rewritable disks might eventually reach over a billion each per year. Factory cost? Who knows -- let's try $2.00 (since DVD disks are expected to prevail soon -- wimpy CD types are less expensive). This would yield $20 million per year royalties at my present 1 % guesstimate, which is definitely low, I think. And the future might hold forth 2%, perhaps. ECD is now involved with increasing the storage density of DVD disks by ten fold or more, and in developing less expensive manufacturing for such disks.
But the above is grossly short of even a summary view of ECD:
ECD has developed what appear to be the most effective (lowest cost per watt) PV cells; and the highly-developed, reel-to-reel, continuous processing equipment to manufacture them with. Both royalties and JVs are in effect. Cannon is a JV partner. They have established a 5 Megawatt per year manufacturing facility, are soon introducing a 25 Megawatt facility, and will follow with a 100 Megawatt facility. At this later stage, they expect their PV cells to be competitive with fossil fuel fired electric plants. Their cells are rugged and reliable -- have even been qualified for space use, and are preferred due to highest output per unit weight. Huge potential markets for their PV cells, on earth and in space.
OUM Technology ECD has developed a semiconductor version of their phase-change optical disk technology that appears strongly, IMO, to be the winning approach to NV memories of all types. Far more important, Tyler Lowery thinks so -- and has said that the OUM memory element is "ideal", compared to other approaches. Huge potential markets, with both royalties and JVs in the offing. One JV now with Lockheed Martin, more soon.
Special Films ECD has introduced major advances in film deposition for both Anti-reflective and Barrier films. (Barrier films are used, for example, by the food industry to retain moisture and flavors in packaged foods.) Their film deposition equipment and their special films are claimed to be outstanding for these large, already-developed markets. One agreement has already been struck; many more appear likely.
Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cells and other Uses ECD has announced a new Magnesium Hydride material and canister design for storing Hydrogen very effectively. This product is safe, works at low pressure, is compact enough for vehicles, can be charged in less than 3 minutes, and can be recharged more than 2000 times. This is sort of the "Holy Grail" of the coming Hydrogen Economy. Shell Hydrogen quickly signed an agreement with ECD; and Shell has now been announcing that they think the Hydrogen Economy will arrive faster than even they had thought. ECD reports that they are receiving many enquiries from energy companies re Hydrogen storage. Again, huge market potential. Anyone's fuel cells will work better with Hydrogen as a fuel, and with greater environmental advantages.
If all the above is not enough, Stan Ovshinksy is reported to be back in the lab working on a FUEL CELL that does not need expensive catalysts. Does he understand fuel cells? Well, his world's-best NiMh batteries work, in part, on the fuel cell principal, I believe. |
