Gregory contrary opinions are what make a market. If you are so convinced that Octel will win, then thank the pessimists for giving you the opportunity to make money (not to mention breathing a little life into this thread). I will be waiting for more info on their Sierra VPIM solution. It will tell us a lot. Meantime, let's watch that hypothetical $180K (10K shares). We can visit this in 3 months. I'll mark my calender.
BTW Sprint is SP and is a very different market than CPE (at least for now). It is much easier for a SP customer to forklift upgrade VM. OCtel effectively owns the CPE market (at least in Fortune 500, and is extremely vulnerable to market erosion with VPIM). Of course, I'll admit the flip side, Octel could experience market consolidation as non-Octel customers abandon their VM using VPIM as the tool to move to Sierra (or other current Octel platforms). Maybe IMA will deliver. Maybe then, OCtel will experience significant market share growth. I accept that as a possiblity (when and if IMA ships). What is not possible, is for Octel to build substantial new business on Sierra. That platform is, for all intents and purposes, dead. IMA itself is an implicit acknowledgement of this since IMA is/was to be a fork-lift upgrade from Sierra.
BTW: if you remember, a few months ago, you and I speculated about the results for last quarter. I suggested that if I decide to get into Octel, I will probably be OK waiting for a quarter. So far, I have not missed oppoortunity to get into Octel (When does Octel announce earnings?). Admittadely, my other holdings have not moved since then either. I guess having shares that held farily steady last 3 months was more than a lot of people in the market were able to accomplish. In that, we both appear to have been relatively unscathed. :)
Last thing, I am not ready to declare which VM companies I expect to soar. I am carefully looking at the products from all of my favorites, and I'll hold judgement for now. BTW: Octel is one of my favorites (albeit negative). I don't have enough interest in Unysis or BSN (or some of the oters) to even comment on their products. |
