Gemstar Intl (GMST) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST)

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To: TigerPaw who wrote (1805)	2/8/2000 5:38:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) of 6516

I'm guessing that GMST is going down because it has placed much of it's future credibility into the lawsuit with TIVO hi tp, you have a point...but gmst has prevailed everytime in the past. i doubt it goes to trial. a settlement seems far more likely. i have a coupla guesses too. the e-book acquisitions are earnings dilutive initially. will be difficult to have blow-out earnings with more shares issued...ditto for the tvgia deal when it happens. i keep focusing on the larger picture. i reread the stephens report last night. that report coupled with stew's posts and explanations and the fact that gem equipped tv's are now in stores all around me, and that i am seeing ads in the guide on my own tv is sufficient for me. the big ad revenues will ramp when gmst has 5 million customers. should cross that bridge within 6 months or less. the potential big kicker that we don't have a handle on is the europe and asia roll-out. i did meet another brit at the beach a few days ago...he knew all about gmst. told me he has it at home. then i read somewhere that over 61% of the brits now know about the guide and like it. i expect the same here soon. the news yesterday about a newspaper buying e-books readers and simon and schuster putting all of their new books and a lot of their old books in e-books format tells me henry secured some awesome deals already for the that business. i doubt anyone relates any of that to gmst yet. gmst is still up 90% in 90 days...i know that doesn't help any very new investors...but a bit of consolidation to absorb three new businesses does seem normal to me. finally the arbitrage play may be at work here...lots of folks bought tvgia expecting it to rise to meet gmst. the opposite is happening, gmst is falling to meet tvgia. gmst -3 yesterday and tvgia nearly flat. if you feel certain that the deal will close..the correct play was to go long tvgia and short gmst....anyone doing that is putting more temporary pressure on gmst. unclewest long gmst....no position in tvgia

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