Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Duker who wrote (34084)	2/8/2000 6:59:00 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it! Yes, it really is scary to see things like this written. The article probably has some truth for semiconductors, where you can remove cyclicality by removing multiple levels of distribution and by going to more of a just-in-time inventory approach. However, I do not believe it holds for semiconductor equipment, which has VERY long lead times and where the semiconductor manufacturer must make a forecast of needed capacity. Any time humans are involved in forecasting, you will see boom and bust cycles...just as we probably will in the stock market!

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