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Technology Stocks : Octel Communications OCTL

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To: David R who wrote (553)	4/27/1997 9:13:00 PM
From: Laserbones	of 733

Sierra is absolutely not Octel's key to the future. I'll agree with you on that. It's been around for a long time. But you must consider that Octel is very aware of any potential threat to their market share. It is also important to note that the upgrade was only for existing Sierra clients. As I have previously stated on this thread, Octel is an easy money maker. I have repeatedly posted that Octel @ 15-16 is attractive. It has cycled from the 15s to 20s on three occasions in the past four months. I wish I could detail my trade history during these swings along with my position size, but who'd believe me on this thread? <G> Octel releases third quarter earnings tomorrow after the close. Estimates are .20-.21/share. I personally expect them to come in on target which may result in some slight downward pressure. Since they are already trading at a significant discounted multiple to the rest of this sector I do not see a major drop even if they are slightly below estimates. I will say that tomorrow would be great if they beat the estimate and make some other significant announcement. It is worth mentioning that last year's third quarter was in the mid thirties per share. This may cause a sharp drop on Tuesday if no other news is forthcoming after tomorrow's close. The Nasdaq has corrected close to 10%. Octel has remained steady within its established trading range. On the hypothetical maybe you should take the short position. I do have a real position of 5000 shares @ 15 1/2. The interesting thing is that these shares are all (well all but a few hundred) the result of profits from Octel's trading range 15-20 the last four months. I still expect mid twenties by year's end. Now wouldn't that be nice? Greg

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