Chevron at analyst meeting pops the Oil bubble - says $18 crude is coming &
Current prices are unsustainable.
*** The blasphemous traitors ! ***
Oil Majors are playing this very conservatively; cutting costs, merger& acquisition oriented, looking for cost saving synergies - THIS IS BIG NEWS folks...
This should send a signal for major Cap Ex expectations for the likes of FGH et al - HELLO people... Do you think the Oil Majors are going to go on a major Offshore Rig Newbuild program with them walking their talk here of $18 crude ?
Their position is NOW very clear; we will continue to bank the windfall profits of present Oil prices - but, we think they are unsustainable and we are NOT going to spend a single penny based on present commodity prices and in fact will steadfastly remain in a cost cutting mode...
End of Story.
No panic - but; this is setting up lower bottoms, further retraces like we saw questioned in KMG yesterday, APA & VRI today. IF the best of the best are getting hit and the positive earnings & fundamental stories of the likes of APA & XTO are ignored - get off margin, wait for more FST's & BSNX's to unfold - because they will....
We are going to see some much better buying opps prior to the OPEC meeting folks.
This may be a chance to re-enter the SII's, the BJS', the ESV's etc.
I look at it as opportunity - to step aside here; sit like a vulture - then swoop down to pick up some choice pieces...
I just went to a strong cash position, hit the sell button this am and again just now - off all margin; I will be patient and troll for some capitulation plays as Institutions are moving out of the sector here - wrong as it will turn out to be; why fight the tape ?
We will get better buying opportunities - lower prices.
I am averaging into my fav's - just nibbling away at FLC, DO - I think they may go lower, I'll follow FLC down each .75 cents - $1, DO ea $2, small caps like IIR WG - allready built positions long ago,but adding UFAB, NR on weakness, a little HOFF, like Bull's comments on pipe - building a small cap basket. Nibbling on PGO - but expect it to selloff further on the negative release coming etc. Buying BHI anytime under $22 - waiting to really load at $20ish, HAL $32ish - may be seen again ?
We may be near bottoms in some stocks - but imho; having lots of cash/margin buying power here is important; because we will see better buys before the OPEC meeting.This is a nervous market and MOMENTEUM rules, once these stocks start falling - BAMM, they get dumped.
Now thru the March OPEC meeting will be the time to place your bets - but , be cognizant that "IF" OPEC eases into the throws of the commentary from DLJ's Tom Galvin & the Chevron Analyst Meeting comments - that we could see some real negative surprises - be smart; ie: refiners could fly off of lower crude prices etc... |
