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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: BDR who wrote (17482)2/8/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: BDR  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
FDM, Kestrel, Centerpoint, Bandwidth

Two startups are about to enter a Royalty Game involving FDM. Since both are, I believe, still privately held, one cannot place bets on the outcome. But one is backed by a Gorilla and one by a King. After reading the manual I would expect the one backed by a Gorilla to take the lead. I was wondering if those less technologically challenged than me (that's just about everyone) could comment on the possibility of FDM becoming a significant Tornado, or does this just have the makings of a minor dust devil where success or failure will get lost in the rounding error on the balance sheet of likes of CSCO or JDSU (I own both)?

lightreading.com
Next week, Kestrel Solutions Inc. (http://www.kestrelsolutions.com) plans to announce the first shipments of products based on FDM (frequency division multiplexing), a technology that enables carriers to cram multiple streams of traffic into a single wavelength.

Within a couple of months, however, Centerpoint Broadband Technologies Inc. (http://www.centerpoint.com) plans to follow suit, upstaging Kestrel by announcing higher capacity FDM developments that'll ship next summer.

Battle will have been joined on a new front in the war to carve out a share of future optical equipment markets. But here's a strange thing: Both vendors' products are based on FDM technology that was first developed by Lockheed Martin Corp. (http://www.lockheedmartin.com). Centerpoint still licenses its FDM implementation via an exclusive agreement with Lockheed Martin; Kestrel says it's now developed its own flavor of FDM.

Why would two vendors go head-to-head for the same piece of optical pie? Because FDM has the potential to become wildly popular with service providers, allowing them to cram exponentially more traffic onto installed fiber lines.
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There's more at stake here than just the fortunes of the two companies and their employees. Some of the optical industries most powerful players have lined up behind Centerpoint and Kestrel. Centerpoint's funding comes in part from internetworking titan Cisco Systems Inc. (http://www.cisco.com). Kestrel's supporters include optical component monolith JDS Uniphase Corp. (http://www.jdsu.com).

FDM will face competition from other new technologies designed to ratchet up bandwidth on optical networks. For example, both OptiMight Communications (http://www.optimight.com) and Templex Technology Inc. (http://www.templex.com) are working on products that use CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) techniques to increase capacity.
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