The X-ray and film uses are falling , but the consumption in Mainland China is rising fast as the 1 billion buyers get more cash. So you have counter trends. I think if the Hong Kong takeover goes smoothly and stability ensues then the Chinese buyers for jewellery will help keep it up in the top end of it's rang, and 6-7 is achievable.. If problems happen in HK, the whole China market will wobble, and people will draw back from silver, and buy gold instead as the traditional oriental emergency money storage medium. They will move gold up, and silver, perhaps a little. The big problem with silver is any price rise mobilizes the Indian overhang, and thus damps it down a bit. It is hard to say, $6-7. It is around $4.50 now??
The predictability is not good, but 6-7 would be a max, and it may not go much over $5-6. Where are the far futures of silver? I would not gamble on silver to run up a lot. The downside risk is small, and so is the upside potential. Why buy it, there are better things. Silver mines are fine as you get it and sell it at a profit, and make a couple of bucks an ounce.
Bill |
