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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.03+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (39448)2/8/2000 9:34:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Bobby,

I can see few reasons to doubt that the trend will continue up, although there are a couple:

- Gaps out of congestion happen on the COMPX but not that often, and there's precedence for them being exhaustion moves. So lets see. For me, I have to wait as my long entry methodology won't let me just hop on. No matter what I am not going to load up on something that has just tested its top (danger Will Robinson) unless I'm buying a move up from a retracement ... or at least some sideways congestion.I like to sleep at night ;)

- New lows on the COMPX expanded even as highs did, and new highs are far from the peak set earlier this year, which seems odd given the day. However this stat could be blown
- And lastly and tounge in cheek, as I'm not an Elliotician - but won't they all be selling this latest peak as a wave 5 - I'm hoping their sheer might will plunge the mighty nas down.

Ok, kidding about the last one. Thankfully I stopped trying to slow down freight trains awhile ago, and will only be short when the weakness is proven and not before.

EDIT: There's one more reason why the market should turn south. I trade *much* better on the short side. (trade, not 'invest') ;)
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