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Strategies & Market Trends : Player's Club Speculative Futures

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To: John Pitera who wrote (162)	2/8/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 185

Since the Clinton Regime,short term debt has consistently been utilized to a greater degree ( as rates have declined ).This has been to great ridicule (at least initially by me).The argument was that if long term rates decline take advantage of them and lock in long term cheap money. I did not foresee the growth fueled by technology that has bailed out what I thought was a risky plan.I thought that the rescheduling of short term debt posed a huge problem if rates ever reversed. In the environment of declining deficits or better yet increasing surpluses it is aggressively brilliant and very contrary to past history. By reducing debt, if rates go down, short term renewals make sense.If rates go up as in the past several months - we will be in deep doo doo. The pivot point is maintaining surpluses and paying down debt.Less debt chased by the same supply of investors (creditors) should drive up the price of the debt instrument(thru increased demand and reduce the yield. In short we're betting on the continuation of the already longest peacetime expansion in history. Do you believe in the digital revolution creating a New Era. I do !! I just don't believe it will happen with out healthy corrections and industry rotations.I think we got a freebee with the asian contagion in 97.We are positioned the same as where we were in 97.Looking into the face of now rising rates.Gold and the CRB are for the first time being contradictory ( very short term ). We either maintain surpluses or pay higher rates to slow down the economy or we pick up another free bee from where- I don't know. The only good possibility that I can envision is a move on Taiwan by China ( it must be quick if they see there " BUDDY " Gore failing to win the election in november). I think they fear McCain( or any republican) a whole lot more than Gore. Other than that I'm watching every rinky dink currency I can find for a devaluation collapse that could bring down Ecuador/Brazil or wherever. JMHO Bob P.S. I don't see the bring down scenario developing but then again I missed the taking of Kuwait and watched my account get clipped then too!!

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