DROOY Durban Deep- Best S. African Mine Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : DROOY Durban Deep- Best S. African Mine

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To: POLARBEAR who wrote (457)	2/9/2000 3:07:00 AM
From: baystock	Read Replies (1) of 851

<<I wonder what someone would be willing to pay for durban at $400 gold? :-)>> $15!! Date: Tue Feb 08 2000 13:46 John Disney ( DRD numbers .. you might be interested ) ID#24148: Copyright ¸ 1999 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Taking a look at DRD .. anyone not interested in SA or a buy the physical type please scroll on by .. this is not for you .. I just did a more comprehensive estimation of DRD earnings for myself .. Here it is .. if you're interested .. for more detail on the 4th quarter results .. go to the DRD site .. Assumptions avg Rand exchance rate 4th quarter 6.16 DRD capacity 1.25 mill oz/ year .. 310,000 oz in 4Q 103 mill shares outstanding .. from 4th quarter results .. revenue = 282$/oz loss was 35 mill rand with a once off restructuring cost ot 39.6 mill rand thus without restructuring they made a profit of 4.5 mill rand or $730,000 on a 4th quarter on production of 310,000 oz .. call it $2.50 per oz .. thus DRD costs are 282 - 2.5 = 279.5 $/oz at 6.16 rand to the $ .. lets take a look at them right now gold is 298 the rand is 6.28 first DRD cost are no longer 279.5 .. they become 279.5 * 6.16/6.28 or 274 .. and their profit per oz becomes 298 - 274 = 24 $/oz rather than 2.5. ( this assumes that their restructuring enabled them to realize the gold market value rather than the hedge value ) . their annual profit becomes 24 * 1.24/103 = $0.29 so on a pe of 10 they should be priced at $2.9 instead of $1.62. look at 3 sensitivities .. 325 and 350 and 400 at 325 .. profit per oz becomes 325 - 274 - 51 $/oz * 1.24/103 = $0.61 share .. at a 10 pe we get 6.1 at 350 .. we get 350 -274 = 761.24/103 = $0.91 or 9 $/share .. at 400 .. we get 400 - 274 = 126 .... then 126 1.24/103 = $1.52/share and we have a $15 stock .. so if you BUY THE PHYSICAL ..you get a move of 400/295 = 35 % .. and if you buy drooy you get a 10 bagger .. but dont tell these guys .. let me know if you find booboos .. next Ill try to do the same thing for Harmony with Randfonts in it ..

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