Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Tomas who wrote (59991)	2/9/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Danger Signals, or opportunity ? Oil majors, integrated, leaders APA BR weak... Even EOG's huge stock buyback announcement doesnt matter... Look at TX ARC - most of the major oils, OXY P UCL - most all the integrateds and the super Independants like BR APA EOG NBL - the weakness here is signaling that Institutions are leaving en masse~. I would exercise patience - as there is going to be some unbelieveable buying opps imho. Institutions are buying into the $18 Oil mindset and that prices are not sustainable. It does not matter either - that we will be highly profitable at $18 etc - this is a MOMEMENTUM MANIA driven - led market - period. We are getting NBL and BR at 5 year lows in THIS price environment ? APA back to the low-mid $30's with their performance and this price environment for Oil & Gas !?!?! Look at FLC - coming to the $11's, the $10's ? they've got some disappointing news yet to come - maybe the $9's ? - I am buying here now and will add proportionately more on ea $ down. DO I will add on weakness; watching RIG MRL for more softness. BHI still cheap, HAL at $32 ish is a dream. We are seeing the Instititional Fav Big Caps getting sold here. If OPEC extends cuts - these big cap, Institutional, "must owns" may be the play - especially when you factor in risk.There may be no reason to take on risk, or the smaller institutional interest of the mid -small caps ? Will BR, or NBL - break 5 year lows in this commodity environment ? Will EOG - fall sub $15 - with a 10+ Million share buyback on the burners ? Will APA break $30 here ? - these look like the plays when "risk" is factored in here - how can you pass these up on continued weakness here ? Calls may start to be the play again on BR NBL EOG and APA. The weakness in the Major's & Integrated's is baffling to me; given the fiscal discipline most are exercising. If Crude stays in the mid $20's - which I think it will; these companies are going to have HUGE, HUGE earnings upside and will HAVE to be the premiere sector for earnings visibility going forward. At $18 crude - they still support prices much higher than where we are... No one is buying the sustainability of crude here - these prices are coming back to last years pre-rally levels ! Now its not an environment of $16 Oil & $1.80 Gas with uptrending commodity prices - but, unknown to where they will reach; but instead - Phenomenally bullish present commodity prices and the worry of "how low will they go"...same prices - different scenario's... The bet paid off BIG the last time and there is only one question anyone needs to ask this time: Are these stocks better off today than they were last year ? Which bet - do you like better - then, or now ? - same shareprices - much different commodity prices - simply unbelieveable...

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