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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (93)	2/9/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	of 494

India Fund Manager Survey For 1Q2000 -Bulls on the rampage 05 Feb 2000 Bulls on the rampage; Thumbs up for the BJP government Introduction This the third in our series of quarterly Fund Manager Survey, the only one of its kind conducted in India. In our continued efforts to reach the institutional investor closer to the retail public, we conducted our Survey for the 1Q through the last ten days of January. The results of the India Fund Manager Survey for 1Q2000 are presented below. Who are the respondents? We have received responses from a total of 29 fund managers ? eight foreign and twenty one domestic funds. 40% of the foreign funds are global funds and regional and dedicated funds equally make up the balance response. Total equity funds managed in India by the polled fund managers will add to over USD14bn. Equity funds managed by them regionally and globally will be well in excess of USD600bn. In terms of size of equity funds, twenty-two of the fund manager?s polled manage in excess of US$100mn. 40% of the fund managers employ the growth style of investing. Summary of Findings The mood is overwhelmingly bullish. 61% of the fund managers expect the Sensex to be between 5500-6000 in the next six months. No one expects it to be below 5500. The bullish stance is reinforced by the fact that 93% of the funds are overweight on India and not a single fund polled is underweight. Earnings expectations are soaring. 91% fund managers expect earnings to be above 15%. This is a sharp increase from 65% polled in our last survey. Infotech remains the favorite sector on fund managers shopping list. Over 47% votes went to this sector. Telecoms and media have are among the other favorite sectors. Auto and cement are absent compared to our last survey. Consumers remain on the hate list this time also. Steel and pharma also follow. Pharma is one sector where opinion is evenly divided. Cyclicals as a class remain on the hate list, as do the PSUs. Consensus on economic recovery is strong. 93% believe that economic turnaround has happened. But surprisingly no fund is willing expecting the cyclical sectors to outperform. Thumbs up for the BJP government. 21% of the fund managers are very satisfied with the performance of the BJP government and the balance are somewhat satisfied. There is no divergence in the opinion of the domestic and foreign fund managers. Fund managers are extremely optimistic about fund inflows. 89% believe that funds inflow would be positive in the next three months. This is obviously a reflection of the positive stance on the economy and markets. Rupee to remain stable. There is no expectation of a devaluation of the rupee. Most fund managers expect it to be devaluing by about 5% maximum. Interest are expected to remain flat. Inflation is expected to inch upwards from present levels. Maybe fund managers are factoring in price hike in petroleum products. And there is near consensus that the fiscal deficit is going to be higher than targeted. Again there is no divergence in the opinions of the domestic and foreign fund managers. Standard expectations from the budget. Fund managers demand from the finance minister present no major surprises- aggressive privatization and strategic sale of PSUs, reduction in fiscal deficit, subsidy reduction and rationalization of indirect taxes top the list of what fund managers would like to hear on the budget day. Many fund managers would also like to see the tax base being increased primarily by taxing agricultural income. (-indiainfo online)

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