GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold

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To: StockMiser who wrote (2229)	2/9/2000 3:40:00 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) of 5582

Stockmiser, thanks for sharing some well thought out ideas. I suspect there is truth in much of what you have to say. Many of us were very surprised and disappointed that AJIC withdrew publication. It was a big blow. Sure management has to take a hit on that...but I think you might be too severe and I don't entirely agree that it was a disaster. Management ran the announcement by AJIC for their approval. What AJIC had not counted on was the sheer explosion of interest from the media. Was it a disaster for GUMM. Not entirely. This is a tiny company that had to borrow $6M to get the product launched, pay for the independent clinical, etc. They had limited manufacturing and inventory and the debt servicing was onerous. Reaction to the news was dramatic and demand for the product overwhelmed their ability to service. Three months later they have paid off the debt, have augmented manufacturing capacity, are flush with cash and have completed an independent study which they expect to be published. Furthermore the stock price is double what it was in Nov. Every thing is a trade off. They might have waited for AJIC to publish in February. They probably would have sold very little Zicam and would still be mired in debt. Maybe the stock would be 50 but the cold season would be coming to a close and who knows how much demand there might have been for Zicam after the publication(so late in the season). We can all question management after it is said and done. I am sure they have second guessed themselves. But, I am not entirely unhappy with where they are and don't really need a $50 stock right now. If the article is published in a couple months, perhaps the improved finanicials and other business circumstances will warrant even higher valuations. Before you become too critical of the company, please take a look at all the other irons that are in the fire. Talk to Gary Kehoe. See if you can take the time to visit the company. You might be surprised what is going on in Phoenix. Regarding any similarities with Cold-eeze. I disagree. But do not wish to revisit the discussion hashed and rehashed on this and other threads. I owned this stock before Zicam and would own it without it. But I am encouraged by Zicam and expect it to be a big winner. Time will tell.

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