Monday/Tuesday's technicals were strong signals of today & further weakness...
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<<Message #59936 from SliderOnTheBlack at Feb 8 2000 2:32PM
Big Block sells hitting the sector - be forewarned... ; I trimmed across the board in a major way.
I like 25-35% cash and all my margin unused here. It wont matter if we announce a 15 M boe drawdown - there are tons of laggards - no one is going to miss anything here - prior to OPEC meeting in MArch.
Yellow Flag is now out - period.
My nose is twitching... could I see FLC in the $10's ? - one last time ? low $30's APA ? sub $15 EOG ?>>
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I added initial position in BR, added more XTO, FST, FLC,DO, - waiting on RIG, HAL, BHI a bit further yet and a few others here.
... I had a few Private e-mails doubting my sanity for selling Mon & Tues - down to having 30% cash and all my margin available. - lucky, or good; it doesn't matter - just a kid with an empty shopping cart and a full pocket of money in the candy store here.
But; I am spacing my limit buys out - to let these come to me. XTO for example - I own prior position at approx basis of 8 1/4, added here today @ 7 5/8 - next limit set for 6 7/8ths - they need to retrace enough on each entry to make it worthwhile, I wouldnt be chasing 1/4's here people.
I said $10/$11, or sub $10 FLC and got flammed on a PM, or two. Well, that didnt take a genius; FLC is short on analyst estimates - huge float, high volume, lots of speculators and hit mid $10's just in late December - that looks like support to me. I will load the doity boid bigtime here - all the way down and will finally become a buy & holder perhaps off of "THIS" final - pre OPEC meeting retrace.
My entire strategy here was to be ready for a "re-run" of last year - a big selloff prior to the OPEC meeting - then a non-stop 6 week; 30-50% run up.
I was ready to trim big time if it looked like the Street was buying into a conservative- insurance mode; and sold off prior to OPEC's meeting. They are... Now I have the buying power to pace myself and let these come to me over the next few weeks and "IF/WHEN" OPEC extends cuts - it's simply a re-run of last year's coiled spring bounce.
Looking for APA BR NBL EOG XTO VPI for major positions and smaller positions in UPR PXD FST & BSNX for E&P's; like PGO FLC DO starting here & averaging in - then BHI HAL RIG, KEG,VTS, NBR, GLBL on further weakness; and if things really get soft - then CAM WFT & SII may come to my buy areas.
Easiest 50% movers ? FLC at $10ish , PGO at $12ish, $19-$20 BHI, $32ish HAL in OSX land, and XTO FST BSNX UPR & EOG - with their huge buyback coming, in E&P's.
Small caps could get real interesting as well here... $2-2.25 RRC, sub $2 7/8 TMR, sub $2 1/2 CRK again ?
Patience... is the keyword here.
Hey, how 'bout that MHR PGEI FGH combo looking strong today ? - people making money in MHR and PGEI - but, only about another $8 to breakeven for 99% of FGH holders (VBG) - but, hey - even when the home team is down 50-0 at halftime, you still gotta stand & cheer when they finally get a first down... right Sgt.Deepwater-a rose by any other name ~ ?
The bottom ? I wouldn't try to call it in advance, but just watch the tape; - gap & space your limits down. If we stay weak - widen & lower them; if we show strength - tighten & raise them. OSX 72 seems possible... but, we should see some buying at 78ish imo. |
