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Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF)
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To: Brian MacDonald who wrote (5646)2/10/2000 1:41:00 AM
From: Gord Bolton  Read Replies (1) of 7235
 
This is not the bankable.

I want to caution everyone with regard to the spreadsheet
I posted. It is mostly backward engineered from the
information that is available and may be incomplete.

I posted it mainly to demonstrate the improved economics
and how the increase in prices for metals impacts the
project--lest you be tempted to sell too cheap when we get
a little bump up in price.

This is what SUF said in their original NR;

- "SouthernEra to Purchase Messina Holdings'
Controlling 54.17% Interest
in Messina Limited. Messina Limited owns 100% of
Messina Platinum
Mines Limited.
- Measured Resource of + 51 Million Tonnes to 1,000
Metres.
- Mine Credits Include Platinum, Palladium and Other
Platinum Group
Metals (PGM), as well as Gold, Nickel, Copper and
Cobalt.
- Pre-Feasibility Study Indicates After Tax Net
Earnings for the Project
to be Approximately C$23 million Per Annum."

The C$23 million per annum is based upon 60,000 tpm. I
believe that they have upped that to 80,000 tpm and my
model is roughly based upon that ie 1 million tp annum.

The 33.33% increase would mean C$30.59 million after tax
per annum. At a minimum the expected after tax profits have
doubled from metal price increases so I think that we are
fairly safe to assume C$61 million in after tax profits if
prices hold.

Corporate tax rates in S.A. are 50% I believe.

Sooo if the US$58.7 (C$85.11) - refinery charges = (30.59 X
2) the refinery charges must be about C$24 million.

Therefore US$132.45 (C$192) - C$24 = C$168 million pre tax
or about C$84 million if SUF decides to pay us dividends.

Or they may choose to reduce taxes payable by reinvesting
in S.A.

Cost/tonne rev/tonne rev/tonne
34.21 92.91 166.66
profit/tonne profit/tonne
58.70 132.45

Rate of mining

1 million tonnes per year

profit
US$132.4 million per annum

X 1.45=CDN$192 million per annum

/26 million shares=CDN $7.38 per share

X 54% (ownership)CDN$4.00 earnings per annum

X 10 = share price $40.00

X 25 = share price $100.00

Actual results may vary materially.
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