Not to get into an argument but my data is quite current. I have used their photresist systems and they used to be one of the best in the industry. They no longer are and allowed the competition catch up and pass them up. I was there in SEMATECH when they were having all of the EIP (Equipment Improvement Programs) issues. If not for the time, effort, and money shelled out by SEMATECH, the part of the business you are talking about would have been 6 feet under, IMHO.
For the longest perios of time SVGI has had the capability laying idle, to crank out the Micrascans. When you have customers like IBM, INTC, Samsung, and maybe MOT, it is not a question of how many units you can manufacture but how many you can build correctly and support in the field with installations and service. I suggest you look at these factors. There is absolutely no way that SVGL could spread themselves thin enough to handle the ramp up.
You also have a stigma to overcome with SVGL. The history of the Micrascan is not a pretty history and memories are quite long. SVGL will carve out a nice business but I will still stand on my opinion that the company will be easily consumed with its handful of clients.
SVGL has been ready for years yet they are still an ugly step child relative to Canon, Nikon, and ASML. and if given enough time, even lowly UTEK with the ISI (GCA) DUV litho systems, could take a crack at some of the business SVGL has in their targets.
The name of the game is not capacity to build but ability to execute. I hope that SVGI and SVGL can execute this time around. It was long and coming, and is quite similar to the AMD-INTC situation where AMD seemed to always shoot themselves in the foot. Eventually SVGI will rise to the occasion and it may be a great investment since its price is depressed relative to its peers.
October of 1998 ASML was selling for $14 per share and is now 10X higher at $140 per share.
October of 1998 SVGI was selling for $8 per share and is now $25 per share.
I would say that head to head, we made the right decision back then and even recently by backing the top tier companies in the sector.
ASML, TER, NVLS, AMAT, KLAC, and a few others put SVGI to shame. Maybe the time has finally come for SVGI but if I had my druthers for photresist equipment, I would go for the Dainippon or the FSII systems, and a few others over the SVGI systems.
The SVGI vertical furnances are an industry standard but they are leaving the door open for the likes of BTUI and one or two others. They can't rest on those laurels either.
And as far as the Micrascans are concerned, SVGL has earned the "show me first" posture due to past issues. If they are successful, so be it, but their business has to be earned over time due to some skepticism by fellow lithographers.
SVGL will do real well as an alternative provider should the time come that the major suppliers extend leadtimes and deliveries of units.
Do not misinterpret anything I said here. SVGI is a good company tha thas lagged the rest of the industry and maybe its time has come. We have a small investment in SVGI just in case it kicks into gear. However, our investments are in equities that HAVE and ARE producing results. SVGI just barely started its recovery well past the start of the rest of the industry.
Even with the addition of the Micrascans, SVGI has been a solid $30 stock over the years. The height of its glory was at the peak of the last industry boom, where it got to the $50 level.
Before we see SVGI at the $200 level people seem to throw around, we will see ASML split once more (not the one coming up) and run to over $100 share again.
SVGL has always had potential and we are just still waiting for it to deliver.
Andrew |
