HAS: In today with modest starter position @15 5/16. In addition to valuation rationale Mike stated, I see competitive battle rationale: Simply stated, there are two armies on the toy field of battle. One, HAS, has seasoned leadership the other, MAT, doesn't and is in disarray. I think leadership counts for a lot given the fast changing nature of this biz. While MAT's assets are arguably valued for less currently, they deserve to be as HAS is positioned to score more wins going forward...it's gonna take awhile for MAT to come up to speed in the leadership department - this is the same board that chose Barad and let her buy TLC for way too much. Don't expect their judgement to improve that much. Some resellers may be doubtful about MAT's ability to skillfully market and thus reluctant to commit to programs and inventory. With 'Open to buy's' being fought for, I give HAS a big edge.
I've been somewhat reluctant about HAS regarding Pokemon [Look at KIDE chart They license Poke], but this probably has more legs than the street is giving HAS credit for [Though not as much as KIDE is still credited for]. 75+% of HAS revenues are 'Evergreen' non-promotional categories, an underlying theme of the co for years and a sustaining base in a volatile market environment.
That said, I won't be suprised to see the market continue to play 'Prariedog' with HAS and pound it down offering lower entry points going forward.
bob |
