Micrologix biotech Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Micrologix biotech

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To: Graham Dellaire who wrote (658)	2/10/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: Larry G.	Read Replies (1) of 792

Graham, you have a lot more experience in these bio stocks than I but some times a novice can see things that experts misses completely. Two years ago, I said MBI could get fast tracking and you and Carter told me it would never happen. You were not alone. Most experts told Hadary he would never get it either. Surprise surprise. Hadary went against the advice of the experts and he got it. The final design of the test for phase 3 have not been decided yet but I would not be surprised if it only took 9 months. Let face it 1,000 people die every week in USA when this drug is not on the market. If it started in August then it could be done in May. Then it goes to final approval and then you could have a drug on the market by the end of the year 2000. I may be to optimistic but maybe not. Another thing to think about is that market will be forced into using this drug if they like it or not. The chances of getting an infection or possibly dying from central venous catheters is 5%. I think most medical people would jump to use this drug and save their patients. If they did not and some one dies, they probably would be sued. There would be no excuse for them dying. I would think there is going to be a big volume of sales right away but we will have to wait and see. I hope I am right but you can see why I do not think it is good to trade this stock. I am not buying any more but I am not sell either. Most people I know want to see the stock come down so they can buy some more but I think when MBI makes an announcement of being phase 3, I think the stock could jump to $15. That is 4.5 months to 7.5 months away. Another thing to think about is MBI is going to start phase one with their undisclosed drug in the first half of 2000. That is in 4.5 months. This will have a positive affect on the stock. They may have another announcement with in that time. Who knows. MBI does not tell any one all that they are doing. MBI also expects to start phase 2 on there acne drug in the second half of the year. They probably will announce favorable results of phase 1 before that. That may have a positive affect on the market. I do not know where you think there will be an opportunity to trade at 5 and 6 dollar range. If it drops to 5, I probably would be in there buying myself. I may be a novice but we will have to wait and see what happens. Cheers

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