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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

0.0%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: set who wrote (39645)	2/10/2000 9:13:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (3) of 99985

set, I think the problem with using a band to find support is that it works in hindsight. i.e., if it continues lower tomorrow, won't the band have arc'd down a little... still providing support? ;) I like hard numbers myself. Trend lines and such. The news is not encouraging for the DOW. On Wednesday it broke the trendline dating from Oct 98, and held below it at the close. Today it didn't even move higher, and closed lower. In my books that's pretty solid confirmation of a major uptrend break. The next major trendline connects 12/94 with 10/98. It we assume that the INDU will go no higher, and draw a trendline down from there, we intersect the two in April 2000 with a DOW near 9750. Interestingly enough, the month of April 99 has a low of 9765.91, and being the base of a largish candle, would be considered a base of support). So that's my call for the end of April 2000. Ah, bearish and lovin' it. LOL

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