Peter,
Pardon the ignorance, but what exactly is UPC 11830 and how do you get to it?
If I understand it right, GLIA now essentially cannot be shorted any longer. Barring some broker locating a specific block of shares to borrow.
What gets me is *why*? If I were short this one, I'd have covered and gone on to more profitable pursuits. Even if I had to eat a loss, the biotechs seem to be the crest of a tsunami coming in out of the deep and it's hard to imagine that you couldn't make money elsewhere a lot cheaper.
After looking at the Prudential report, I'm now convinced that buying GLIA means buying ADCON-L; the rest is *FREE*! I don't know anywhere else I can get a biotech without having to pay any money for it. Sure, it comes wrapped up with a medical supplies company, but the expected revenue stream from that one is what justifies the price.
Note that the Prudential target of $25 this year assumes almost nothing except a return to market of ADCON-L. Yeah, $4M from a partnering of ADCON-P which they might or might not do, but that might come about just from filling the inventories with ADCON-L or a more reasonable increase in sales. To top it all off, they're using a multiplier that's 25% *below* average for an issue with revenue growth that's projected to be far beyond average.
I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry about this one; it's getting sillier and sillier. If there's something I'm missing, please enlighten me!
Thanks, Torben |
