Clearly you an expert practitioner of TA
That's very nice of you to say but I'm only what God gave me.
there's no way anyone will convince you that the analysis you applied to THQI is less valuable than FA
No one will convince me because I'm already convinced. You may not believe this but I don't overweight TA or FA: I consider both equally. I don't buy weak FA companies or TA companies. Their value comes at different times. Sometimes TA can be more helpful; sometimes FA is. But they should both be considered with equal weight.
A higher price means a lower return. It really is not rocket science.>
Not necessarily. Look at Cisco. Last year it was trading at a 52 week high. If you bought then, you're up 170%. Is that a bad return?
I don't decide to buy when everyone else decides to buy. I buy before everyone else decides to buy and sell before everyone else decides to sell.
You see right now, not everyone has decided to sell. They still believe THQI will come back. However, when I do buy, I want to see some strong interest from institutions because they account for the bulk of trades. Before I sell, I want a good reason to sell like seeing the bulk of institutions selling. We don't follow each other but we are cognizant of each other's actions.
This is very precisely the observation of Warren Buffett, who made much of his fortune in the bear market of the early 70's: the exact time when no one -- particularly buy-side institutions -- seemed to want stocks of even the greatest companies.
Here your logic gets a bit weak. You see, Warren Buffett is smart. He doesn't buy companies like THQI for the long term. He bought things like Coke, McDonalds, etc. in the 70s.
So bringing him up only weakens your reasoning to hold THQI.
Secondly, I agree you should buy when no one else wants to. And right now, most people, as the sentiment on the message boards shows, are still wanting to buy. This should be a clue that the bottom hasn't been hit yet.
Conservatively Yours,
Raymond J. Norris |
