Kenneth, may i ask your thoughts on a brief article in Forbes' ASAP by George Gilder, titled "A Death Foretold"?
says sonet will die and its demise will "suck ... cisco, nortel, lucent, att, amcc and pmc sierra into its downward spiral, unless they fully commit to ... the all optical network." "nortel (commands 41% of ... sonet ... and lucent
... 33% ... will have no buyers for this gear"
he does grant that in yr 2000 the sonet market will (explode) to $10 billion ... "right before it collapses".
he also grants that "... nortel with its powerful acquisition, Qtera, is now trying to eliminate everything
but the optical layer from the center of the network." so our boys are in there with the new pioneers.
if he's right about the 41% and the $10 billion, nt will take in $4 billion in sonet revenues this year, over $3 billion more than 1999 as i recall. in my experience nothing goes from 10 billion to zero or even from 10 to 1 in one year. putting that aside, what do you think of gilder's statement that "ciena (and others) are driving sonet to the edges of the network, where it will whither."
i have read much elsewhere that sonet must go because it is a photonic choke-point. but what in your opinion, Kenneth, do ciena, scmr etc have technologically that nt does not, that nt will not in fact lead the charge - with qtera - to create the all optical network? what special technology of ciena, scmr etc. do you think he refers to when he writes that these others are "driving sonet to the edges ..." |
