Stockhawk, Aus and thread,
I too believe that Robby Stephens is being "extremely conservative", especially with their '01 revenue estimates. The only thing that could make their $750m 'on the mark' is if ASPs fall more quickly than I anticipate. Always possible, but (a) I don't think the new capacity will come on line that quickly, and (b) as long as Sandisk and the CFA help to maintain discipline within the flash community by the means at their disposal (including Sandisk's royalties), the market should be OK. Perhaps ironically enough, if the producers think about it, Sandisk's royalties will help them maintain profitability and avoid a free-fall disaster like the DRAM market has been through, I think and hope--unless someone finds a way around the patents, which is (I'll try not to repeat this again after this mention!) why the Lexar suit is important. If one company can avoid the royalties, they all can, and Sandisk's IP is no protection, not only to them, but to the flash market at large.
IMHO of course.
Regards,
Sam
(149 and change) |
