Anyone else feel - "Hinkey" about this market ?
One thing that I have seen that really bugs me; is that Institutions seem to move in virtual unison, in & out of sector's. Allmost perfectly co-ordinated - enmasse .
They also seem to "stay in" sectors - in unison; knowing if "THEY" don't sell - these "bubble" valuations won't go away...
I think that one day, we will just wake up & turn on CNBC and see the next Oct 1987esque crash starting for no real reason. Someone "big" will be dumping, someome else big - will hear & see it and follow, someone else "big" - will run for the door as well and there won't be room for the medium & small guys to make it to the exit...
This market allmost allmost gives the sense that everyone is looking at & inching toward the door - all the while, talking up the market, but ever closer positioning themselves to make it out that door...
DOW 10,400 - what's support ?
If you want to get some "fear" , or "respect" - go look at what a 400-600 point DOW move has done to the OSX in the past....regardless of the fundamentals, or the valuations.
That XOI weakness MUST be respected and feared. It can be bought, but it is NOT showing signs of what most here are expecting. I have made too much money, to risk it - into this environment, with these signs; at potentially the highest risk point - pre OPEC meeting. Yes, it is ultimately the highest reward point as well; but my main point is no-one is going to miss the move in any 1-2-3 day reaction right before, or right after the OPEC meeting.
Lots of scenario's could happen. Suppose 2 weeks prior to the Vienna OPEC meeting, when Saudi, Venezeula & Mexico meet; say they "talk" - or "float" the trial balloon of "easing" ? - BAMM, 10-15% correction to the patch ? Maybe they are merely "talking down" Oil prices - so that when they formally agree to extend cuts; they are doing so into $26-7 Oil and not $32 Oil ? - does it matter, or will the market be thinking that when they sell on the "easing" news ? - this is a pure momenteum market people - facts & fundamentals do not matter, yet.
This is why (call it a gut feeling) I refuse to give up my "assault rifle" (my margin) for this battle. I want the heavy artillery for what I am sensing. I want all my banana clips and my bandolier full, for this one...
Gold & metals raising their heads here etc...
"HINKEY" - yes, this market is "hinkey".... Razorback, if he listens to the Radio - should know what "hinkey" is - being from Chicago... |
