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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.730

-0.7%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3615)	2/11/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: sisuman	Read Replies (3) of 34857

To: Tero From: SISUMAN Subject: The WAP opportunity/battle Ericsson has just announced that it expects (conservatively) some 600 million mobile Internet users by 2002. This has very interesting implications. I did a projection as follows: 2000 2001 2002 Annual handset sales 410m 530m 650m WAP handset sales 40m 200m 360m WAP mkt. share 10% 38% 55% Nokia WAP phones 12m 60m 108m I assumed that Nokia got a 30% market share. The implications are: 1. Nokia current asp is $169/phone and it makes about $40 profit/phone - down from $233 and $44 in 1998. WAP sales could turn this around significantly (double?) by 2001. 2. If Nokia truly has a WAP lead, its mkt. share could go beyond 30%. 3. The handset business is going to change in a major way in the next 3 years with WAP leadership up for grabs. 4. What % of this WAP market will be in the U.S. in the next 3 years? Low? SISUMAN

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