Hassell, I'm just trying to get information ( reason for the recent stock rally ) without stepping on too many toes <g>. As a matter of fact, I consider myself a friend of Pat's and have great respect for her hard work and analytical/stock picking abilities. Pat is on a hot streak lately and has picked some HUGE winners in the past 2-3 months,eg CMTO, ORTL, LEAF and MRVC. Over the last 5 years, she has gained many Industry and Wall St contacts so when Pat goes Long on a stock, I have a much high confidence level in her picks than any Wall St ANALyst who was paid off in return for investment banking business like a cheap whore. Pat should start her own mutual fund which would probably rival the returns of most hot fund managers like Van Waggoner who have the advantage of being able to get in on many hot IPO's at IPO pricing.
Having said this, friends can disagree and I myself do not see the benefit to CMTO shareholders in "exposing" a competitor like TERN. I recall that a recent CNBC piece talked about how one could be more successful picking the weakest company in a hot sector than picking the strongest company in a weak sector. TERN has helped bring attention to the cable modem/broadband sector like BRCD has lifted sector valuations in the Fibre Channel/SAN space. Let's assume that worst case scenerio, everything that Pat says about TERN is true. What is the implication of those revelations to CMTO shareholders:
1) If TERN stock craters as a result of revenue recogntion issue and/or technology issues will it take CMTO down with it?
2) Will fund managers read this SI thread and sell TERN to buy CMTO?
3) Will Cable companies use this thread to help them decide which cable modem vendor to choose?
I would rather FOCUS on CMTO ISSUES such as:
1) FA of CMTO , eg what are the latest analyst projections for CMTO in the upcoming quarter and this fiscal year? What is CMTO doing to exceed those expectations? What exactly is CMTO doing on wireless and does Wall St see wireless as part of the CMTO story?
2) Why don't more Wall St analysts cover CMTO? IMO, there is a huge opportunity to get the CMTO story out to Wall St. Reality is that TERN has Wall St ANALyst support because they paid for it or have made promises on future SPO business. Is CMTO contemplating a SPO to raise its cash warchest and broaden Wall St support???
3) Is the cable modem business headed for consolidation? What is the outlook for CMTO verus much larger competitor like MOT,etc?? Is it possible to survive as a 10-15% market share player OR is CMTO a likely takeover candidate?? ( Interesting to note that 2 of Pat's picks LEAF and ORTL recently became captive ).
Sorry for the diatribe. I am trying to be as objective as possible on all my Long positions without being a cheerleader. |
