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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: KY who wrote (17763)2/11/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Comparing SEBL and GMST

KY,

If we are purely comparing SEBL/GMST gorilla markets (VCR+ vs. CRM), I would give the nod to SEBL. Am I miss-valuing the potential of the VCR+ market...alone?

No, you're not. But the reality is that few of us would invest in Gemstar if we were doing so on the basis of their Gorillahood in VCR+. That product is on Main Street, near the top of the bell curve if not already well past it.

Where I think many are missing the boat is in the thinking that one should wait until the tornado forms to invest in Gemstar. I have established a partial position because it's my thinking that part of Gemstar's IPG technology, the part that is used by the end user, is an applications technology. As you know, Gorilla Gaming advocates buying applications technologies in the bowling alley, which is where I think those IPGs are.

For those who want to wait until the enabling technology enters the tornado, that's ceratinly a reasonable invstment decision. But I'd prefer that they do that because 1) they consciously disagree with me that there is an apps aspect to Gemstar's technology and/or 2) they prefer the lower risk/lower reward scenario of waiting until the apps tornado forms.

To get to the specific point of comparing Gemstar and Siebel, it's critically important to recognize that Gemstar is part (if not all) enabling technology whereas Siebel is only an apps technology. The power of an enabling Gorilla far surpasses the power of an apps Gorilla. And the mass-market potential of a consumer-based enabling Gorilla is nothing short of mind boggling, remembering of course that Siebel's market is not consumer-based.

In the end, if I could invest only in Siebel or Gemstar and could do so only once the tornado had formed, Gemstar would be my choice. Why? Because the Gem is a consumer-based enabler. Siebel's product is neither consumer-based nor an enabling product.

Just my opnion(s).

--Mike Buckley
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