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Strategies & Market Trends : TIMING INDEX MUTUAL FUNDS

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To: yard_man who wrote (130)	2/11/2000 8:59:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 428

I don't have enough free time to figure it out but I doubt it would be much different since MSFT weighed it down the last few days offsetting the gains in the others and INTC gave in also. I just finished updating my charts on our site except for the NYSE charts since they come in a bit later. All I can say is depressing for the bulls and very bright for those of us that want this market to return to more realistic valuations and to look less like a gambling casino. We could bounce from over sold levels in some of the DOW stocks but it doesn't look good. I need to look harder at some more charts later this weekend but from my initial notes.... I have two possible sells, IBM and AMAT and only one possible buy on PG which bounced off my lower fork tine. I have question marks on IP and UTX but my weekly shows they could still go lower. CPQ is a remote possible long ( I seriously doubt it) Weighing bullish versus bearish chart patterns, broken resistance and support lines etc, it is all on the bearish side. Weak bounces that failed and dropped again on CPWR, DELL, WMT, FDX. MMM broke daily 4 month support and the weekly shows much more to come, NVLS tweezer top with twice the down volume today as the up volume yesterday. Russell 2000 Double top off an extension fork tine, and the credit card companies COF and PVN waterfalling down through long term supports and forks. If other stocks follow the leads of these guys it could blow the minds of most traders and even those that "hold for the long term" <ggg> I still am not convinced this bull can't kick a few more times and make a couple more rally attempts for a blow off top but it is starting to look pretty grim. Long term supports are failing all over my data folders. I did finally get those long term charts of the NDX and NASDAQ up on our site. They were originally done in weekly format but I run my monitor at 1200 by 1600 and when I shrunk them down so the average person could view them, they were almost unreadable so I had to change to monthly. Note that we can still go up slightly over time but the upside is severely limited here and the downside only grows. Also note the signals which have done fairly well and only fail coming out of corrections which we are not doing at this time. Those sell signals are ominous. Good Luck, Lee

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