Apak,
But seriously, why bring up Rawlsian economics here, mention a veil of ignorance, and claim that I made a "personal vantage statement"?
Because one must remove the veil of ignorance to accurately establish a trendline. You're beginning at an arbitrary point in (1996) because it provides a case for the long term trendline *not* being broken. Trendlines are not drawn halfway through a trend! They're drawn when the trend begins. There is no disputing this; pick up any TA book. Trendlines begin with trends, not at halfway points as you are trying to do.
A trendline illustrates prices, from which we infer crowd behavior
A trendline illustrates the "trend;" the slope of the current rise; the strength of bulls. The slope of the trendline tells us how strong bulls or bears are.
. But try looking at the four-year chart showing the *monthly* closes for THQI. Quel toupet! The long-term trendline is not broken with the recent drop.
I beg to differ. And in fact, I thank you for prompting me to look at the monthly chart. I usually don't because this is only indicative of very long term swings.
I've posted the *monthly* chart at the following address. In this chart, there is no disputing where the trendline begins. The 1996 low does not connect with collinear points.
stocktrendz.com
My point is that you are asserting a clear situation when a unclear, contradictory situation is evident
I disagree. Many of my other friends that are professional traders agree with how I draw the trendline. I believe you're trying to assert a contradictory situation exists. Perhaps because TA is both a science and an art, you can argue this point indefinitely. However I believe you won't find any serious traders considering a trendline other than the one which begins with the low of the great bull. As Trader Vic writes in his book,
"Draw uptrend trendlines from the lowest low (1995 for THQI) to the highest low preceding the highest high."
I think you're arguing your trendline because it best fits your long position. Having no position, I would argue I could better assess the situation objectively. You can draw trendlines to tell you whatever you want them to tell you. But there's no refuting the price.
Conservatively Yours,
Raymond J. Norris |
