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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Bruce Brown who wrote (17782)2/12/2000 10:23:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Bruce,

I think Geoff Moore's inclination to change the investment model rather than bet later is astute. When he mentions that we risk the P/V model being wrong, that's where our own due diligence comes into play. The more I think about CREE with regard to the issue of waiting until the product enters the tornado, the more I think that their current lock on the ability to produce commercially viable SiC is the sort of thing that reduces the risk of placing a bet before the tornado occurs.

What's especially interesting is to realize that, in the past, investing in an enabling technology prior to the tornado was an individual's choice to vary from the manual's rules. Now it seems that the same choice would be in keeping with the changing rules of the Game.

Being the senior nit picker around here, I've just gotta tell you that I laughed out loud when I saw the following comment by Moore: "It is what we all did with Qualcomm last year, and JDSU --- used our models to act earlier than other investors." Ahem. We all did? For those peeking in around here who aren't aware, many of us here in the folder determined that Qualcomm was the Gorilla at the time Moore was still insisting the Q was a prince in a royalty game. He later came to see it our way, but to say "we all" in that context is simply inaccurate.

--Mike Buckley
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