Interesting Article RE: DSL
Good primer for us non-techs.
Check out numbers in this article (bolded by me) vs.
NHC's PR nhc.com
IDC projects the North American DSL market is expected to attain more
than 4 million lines by 2002, and Frost & Sullivan estimates that the revenues for DSL equipment
will grow to $1.7billion by 2003.
Shift to DSL and Packet-Switching Technology to Create Estimated
$4.4 billion Communications Equipment Market Opportunity
by 2002, Says New U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Report.
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 10, 2000--A major new
telecommunications equipment report by U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray
asserts that the "local loop" is in the midst of a major,
multi-year transition to an architecture based on
digital subscriber line (DSL) transport and packet switching. From a base of 770,000 in 1999, DSLs are expected to grow to 12.9
million in the United States alone, creating an estimated $4.4 billion equipment market by 2002, says the report, "Packet Over
DSL:--The New Access Paradigm."
The local loop refers to the 190 million copper pairs that connect
businesses and homes to telecommunications companies' central
offices. "Packet over DSL represents the most efficient, flexible
platform for delivering bundled voice and data services to small
businesses and customers," says U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Senior
Analyst Conrad Leifur, who authored the report.
DSL is rapidly replacing analog technology that has enabled
communications for several decades. DSL technology expands the
carrying capacity of copper pairs by 20-fold or more. The technology uses sophisticated digital signal processing
techniques in order to utilize the full bandwidth of a copper pair, as opposed to the analog modem technology, which is confined
to the 4 kHz audible spectrum.
Meanwhile, riding on top of the DSL layer, packet-based transport is replacing traditional circuit-switched transport, resulting in
enormous gains in bandwidth
utilization. In the packet-based model, communications traffic is
encapsulated into variable-length packets or fixed-length cells,
which are switched or routed based on
information in the packet or cell header.
Leifur refers to this new access network as "packet over DSL," and
says an increasingly rich variety of communications services
are being delivered over this
architecture. "While high speed Internet access is the 'killer application' for packet over DSL today, we expect voice and business data services to be delivered via packet over DSL this year, dramatically improving service economics
and accelerating adoption of DSL," he says.
According to Leifur, the central office model will dominate packet over DSL deployment, but multi-tenant unit (MTU) and digital
loop carrier (DLC) deployments will soon account for a significant
portion of overall packet over DSL deployments. In a central
office deployment, DSL signals run on the copper loops connecting a central office to businesses. With MTU, the DSL link is
created on the in-building wiring within an office building or apartment building. MTU overcomes issues related to distance and is rapidly gaining momentum. DLCs increase the number of
customers served by existing copper facilities (wire pairs) by
concentrating several analog or digital lines at a remote location
and then transmitting the concentrated signal via a fiber-optic
line back to the central office.
"By 2002, fully one-third of packet over DSL lines will be provided by MTU or broadband DLC deployments, creating exciting
new equipment opportunities," Leifur says.
Given the magnitude of the DSL opportunity, U.S. Bancorp Piper
Jaffray believes equipment companies with the right technology
stand to benefit. "The equipment opportunity created by the transition to packet over DSL is enormous," says Leifur. "By 2002,
packet over DSL equipment purchases will dominate the overall access equipment market." |
