Quite a few PM expressed confusion as how coms will track Palm
after ipo. I have done a spreadsheet to show the various
possible scenerios.
The way to read this spreadsheet is "when Palm is at $16, the
combined value of coms/Palm will be $54 at 100% without discount.
At 10% discount, coms/Palm will be $49, at 20% will be $43 and so on.
The cap is projected market cap for Palm at various price levels
assuming share outstanding to be 570 million. PSR is price to sales
ratio = "Market-Cap / $1.5 billion revenue".
Assumption is that coms is worth $30 without Palm.
cap PSR Palm *1.5 coms 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
9,120 6 16 24 30 54 49 43 38 32
17,100 11 30 45 30 75 68 60 53 45
22,800 15 40 60 30 90 81 72 63 54
28,500 19 50 75 30 105 95 84 74 63
34,200 23 60 90 30 120 108 96 84 72
39,900 27 70 105 30 135 122 108 95 81
45,600 30 80 120 30 150 135 120 105 90
51,300 34 90 135 30 165 149 132 116 99
57,000 38 100 150 30 180 162 144 126 108
62,700 42 110 165 30 195 176 156 137 117
68,400 46 120 180 30 210 189 168 147 126
79,800 53 140 210 30 240 216 192 168 144
91,200 61 160 240 30 270 243 216 189 162
102,600 68 180 270 30 300 270 240 210 180
114,000 76 200 300 30 330 297 264 231 198
142,500 95 250 375 30 405 365 324 284 243
171,000 114 300 450 30 480 432 384 336 288
199,500 133 350 525 30 555 500 444 389 333
228,000 152 400 600 30 630 567 504 441 378
256,500 171 450 675 30 705 635 564 494 423
285,000 190 500 750 30 780 702 624 546 468
The highlighted line is the one I'm shooting for. It reads like this:
"if Palm is at $120, the market cap of Palm is 68 billions with a
psr of 46, the combined coms/Palm value is $210, at 10% discount
it's $189, at 20% discount it's $168, at 30% it's $147, and at 40%
discount it's $126.". I'll happily take any of the above numbers !
Note: All numbers above are approximates and presents a brain-storming
session of analysis of some future speculative events - not a
recommendation to buy or sell any stock.
Mang |
