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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.43

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Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40020)	2/12/2000 5:19:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99985

OJ, why do you think that the new cycle in the semi will last longer than prior cycles? The leading edge of the last cycle top was overcapacity in the DRAM sector, and prices their have been in continuous decline since the Taiwan earthquake induced big pop. Once the "old economy" (whatever that means) start to cut down on expenditures, if the fed's effort to slow things down succeed, that will percolate even to the SOX, IMHO. I do not see a top until much later this year, and maybe early next year (in the stocks, in the industry probably even later), but I would say that a good 80% of the cyclical move in the SOX is behind us. I think we will stop just short of the 1040, suggested by someone else on this thread. Zeev

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