I can't say either Cramer or Dremen should carry much weight. Cramer I reject from first principles, Dremen I am forced to reject because he would have made me poor(er).
From Nov 1998: f you own any of the handful of large-cap growth stocks that have been the sole props for the market to date, sell them now. Disappointments in these issues could result in catastrophic drops in their prices. What happened to the Nifty Fifty in 1974 will happen to them.
Dell Computer, for example, currently has a market value more than twice that of General Motors and is trading at a P/E of 75. Can Dell continue to grow sales and earnings at a near 60% clip, with major foreign markets beginning to dry up and heavy competition at home, which will only get worse if the economy slows? It is a great company with a great business model, but it can't walk on water. Ditto for Pfizer, America Online, Yahoo! and the rest of the new "Nifty Twenty-five." These are not the stocks you will want to own when earnings disappointments arrive en masse.
Stick with value stocks, many of which are already down sharply. Keep some reserves and be slow to jump back in. If the market moves lower, here are some value stocks worth considering: Citigroup (44, CCI), P/E 15, yield 1.6%; Fannie Mae (67, FRE), P/E 21, yield 1.5%; Key Corp. (27, KEY), P/E 13, yield 3.2%; and RJR Nabisco (24, RN), P/E 11, yield 8.3%.
David Dreman is chariman of Dreman Value Management of Jersey City, N. J. His latest book is Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation.
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