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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (75773)2/12/2000 7:04:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
I can't say either Cramer or Dremen should carry much weight.
Cramer I reject from first principles, Dremen
I am forced to reject because he would have made me poor(er).


From Nov 1998:
f you own any of the handful of large-cap
growth stocks that have been the sole props for
the market to date, sell them now.
Disappointments in these issues could result in
catastrophic drops in their prices. What
happened to the Nifty Fifty in 1974 will happen
to them.

Dell Computer, for example, currently has a
market value more than twice that of General
Motors and is trading at a P/E of 75. Can Dell
continue to grow sales and earnings at a near
60% clip, with major foreign markets beginning
to dry up and heavy competition at home, which
will only get worse if the economy slows? It is a
great company with a great business model, but
it can't walk on water. Ditto for Pfizer, America
Online, Yahoo! and the rest of the new "Nifty
Twenty-five." These are not the stocks you will
want to own when earnings disappointments
arrive en masse.

Stick with value stocks, many of which are
already down sharply. Keep some reserves and
be slow to jump back in. If the market moves
lower, here are some value stocks worth
considering: Citigroup (44, CCI), P/E 15, yield
1.6%; Fannie Mae (67, FRE), P/E 21, yield
1.5%; Key Corp. (27, KEY), P/E 13, yield 3.2%;
and RJR Nabisco (24, RN), P/E 11, yield 8.3%.

David Dreman is chariman of Dreman Value
Management of Jersey City, N. J. His latest book is
Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation.
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