I hope ATHM will be like QCOM and TQNT. I am so depressed at current price but keep asking myself "is this a buying opportunity?".
Anyone comments about this old article? Pretty depressing to see this guy calling ATHM death.
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The Death of AtHome? Kevin Prigel
Excite AtHome NASDAQ:ATHM
Jan 5 2000
Monday's surprise announcement from FreeDSL, declaring that the company would give free broadband service to millions across the United States ended up being a lot more fluff than fact. Digging deeper into the details, it was soon discovered that to qualify for "free" DSL service, a user must convince 10 friends to sign-up, plus agree to deal with endless highly targeted advertising. The Free ISP has shown that users are willing to deal with one of those inconveniences, but not both.
Despite the hot-air, FreeDSL does raise an interesting question for backers of cable technology. How can you invest in a technology on the premise that you'll be able to charge a premium for it, when an open technology gives well-funded entrepreneurs the opportunity to completely undercut you?
The only way to justify an investment in cable infrastructure despite this threat is to believe that your content and community will demand a premium, a la America Online, Do the two largest cable internet access providers have this content and community?
The answer is a resounding "no" for Time Warner's RoadRunner, which amounts to nothing more than a glorified ISP. The Excite@Home issue is somewhat more complex. However, I wholeheartedly believe that Excite@Home's attempt to meld content and bandwidth is a complete failure.
Given that, the investment thesis for Time Warner's RoadRunner and AtHome is dead, and the market does not even know it. If your looking for a position that should win in a bull or bear market, shorting Excite@Home is the direction to look. |
