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Gold/Mining/Energy : Birim Goldfields Inc. (BGI-T)
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To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (484)2/13/2000 2:55:00 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 922
 
Here are the scenarios I see in order of likelihood:

1. ASL restructures by selling Tanzanian assets (or the whole company gets bought), and then significantly reduces their hedge book. The smaller but now solvent ASL refocuses in the homeland, Ghana and aggressively pursues opportunities such as Mampon (per Brian's post 480). BGI emerges as the No. 1 and best financed exploration company in that country. As such, in time they receive a top dollar buyout from others (including ASL, GSR, Resolute, Moydow/Normandy, ANGLY or other new players such as ABX) seeking entry in that country.

2. ASL gets mired down and essentially fails. Others such as GSR (look for an underwriting as their stock has doubled in a month)look to move into the vacuum. ASL fails to meet financial obligations on Mampon, and the "others" make a similar deal with BGI. The end play scenario is replayed even more aggressively as others make their move minus ASL.

3. ASL gets mired down and muddles through. In this scenario ASL must make good on their obligations (or else they fail). Given the importance of the Mampon deal, progress proceeds but slowly.

4. ASL not making good on basic obligation and not failing, is not a long lasting scenario.
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