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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 71.08

+0.1%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric who wrote (32291)	2/13/2000 4:27:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (2) of 77397

Re: Gilder and CSCO George, for all his prescience, has a giant blind spot when it comes to gorillas like MSFT, INTC, and especially CSCO. (He famously predicted that MSFT would never exceed its then-outrageous $60 billion market cap several years ago). Bill Gates has been quoted as saying that MSFT is always 24 months from being out of business and the same is true for CSCO. Static analysis will always fail for these companies because they are among the most dynamic organizations on the planet and are in a constant process of reinvention. In the same analysis in which George concludes that CSCO is toast because routers will be superseded by all-optical networks he also notes that SONET is equally going the way of the horse-and-buggy. Yet despite the fact that SONET currently contributes a huge percentage of the profit base for LU and NT he assumes that these two favored companies will nimbly make the adjustment while CSCO will not. Judging by LU's recent stumble it would appear that no company is "safe" from technological change. The result is that the investor's only real assurance is the strength of a company's management. Fortunately CSCO's management is the best of the best and has repeatedly proven the naysayers wrong as it continues to ride the Internet tsunami. I see no reason to assume that Chambers and Co. will not continue in this vein. Optical, for all the hype, is still in its infancy and it is clear that CSCO intends to be the major player in this space as it matures over the next several years. Those who doubt that CSCO will "do what it takes" to succeed are simply ignoring history.

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