FROM RB:
By: gunesh
Reply To: None
Friday, 11 Feb 2000 at 3:46 PM EST
Post # of 52815
IDC is an embarrassment for analysts who just do not seem to get the picture. I have
been watching and buying IDC for some time now. I have absolutely beaten the market
big time. What perplexes me is why the analyst community seems to have blind spots
when it comes to certain stocks.
IDC has 800 patents in CDMA and TDMA. Many of the patents in their portfolio are going
to be very hard to get around in the next generation. They finished 1999 with a very strong
cash position even though there was an episodic decrease in earnings per share. We all
knew that was coming. Look at the cash position. It is very solid. Look at the patent
portfolio. It is hard to beat. Whereas it is true that Qualcomm has some very good
patents, for the long term IDC is in at least as strong a position.
From a technical point of view that seems to be above the horizon of most analysts the
IDC portfolio is like an undiscovered country with vast resources for the future. W-CDMA
and B-CDMA are technically, where the not too distant future will be. I am a scientist who
has been involved in breakthrough technological developments for over twenty years. I
can read the Patents unlike these so-called analysts. I have seen what floats and what
sinks.
IDC's Patent Portfolio is no Titanic sinking in a sea of over-inflated expectations. I am not
so sure about Qualcomm's. I admit to having made a large sum riding Qualcomm's wave.
For this, I am grateful. I just see some major technological holes in Qualcomm's boat that
to my knowledge only Patents from IDC can fill. Maybe Qualcomm and IDC will make
some sort of deal in a win/win scenario. I hope so for Qualcomm's sake.
It is funny that people still refer retrospectively to the Motorola debacle of a few years ago.
That adjudication was one of the worst embarrassments in US Judicial history. The
Judge even admitted that he was not truly technically informed enough to understand the
full details of either side's arguments.
The Ericsson case arises at a time when the US Patent Office has just upheld and
renewed the basic IDC claims, which are the pivots upon which their case against
Ericsson turns. The implications are huge. The amount of money owed to IDC in back
royalties would cause an explosive growth in earnings per share.
A friend of mine in Germany, who is a seasoned investor, told me recently that he and
many of his friends in Germany have watched the IDC drama with puzzled interest. The
German courts, which are highly competent in technological matters, have consistently
upheld IDC Patent Claims. After the Motorola decision by an unqualified jury he called
and said, "How can your courts be so stupid?"
I do have a theory, which I will finally float here. IDC holds technological breakthroughs
that are just too far ahead for all but the best informed to grasp. When you see a
B-CDMA demonstration (like one that was done in Germany two years ago,) there are
almost no dropouts due to signal attenuation. In fact, such dropouts virtually disappear.
Your can hear perfectly in a subway station. Simultaneous voice, data (at ISDN rates),
and video communication are inherent capabilities. This stuff is right out of Star Treck or
Earth the Final Conflict but it is here and now.
For the engineers at IDC this is not stuff of the future. It is not just speculation. It is what
can be demonstrated now today. (Analyze that.)
In the meantime I am very grateful for the lack of foresight and even good research that
has put IDC back to it's current levels. It allows people who would not normally be able to
enjoy the incredible upside potential of this stock to actually afford it. This time the bears
are going to get their feet caught in a Broadband trap. |
