Tom -
I still owe you an email, but in the meantime, some thoughts.
First, re: Infowave, the only risk I can perceive in this stock is "market risk" - there is no risk in the stock (that I can see) even if one buys at $40. There is a real (not imaginary, not pie-in-the sky) possibility that it could match or exceed the Aether share price. Based on the fundamentals (in particular, the European revenue, which Aether doesn't have) and rumored projections, one can assign a probability to it. I've given it a 30% chance, more sophisticated analysts could probably quantify it better.
Second. It's important to remember the efficacy of the Infowave Wireless Engine, which lies at the heart of these, and future implementations. Given the unfolding of the plan, which was to target the enterprise (Fortune 500) market, to gain credibility and market share, the stage is set for Infowave software to become a standard by which others are measured. Coincidentally, it is expected that the enterprise market will be the first to generate significant, sustainable and predictable wireless revenue. Infowave's strategy has turned out to be exactly right.But the greater point is that this is just the beginning, and I expect the next two years will see a dazzling assortment of wireless software, not all of which will be targeted for the MS environment. IW cannot afford to ignore other market segments,eg., Psion, Palm, Linux - and that is where the capital requirements will be felt.
But, forgetting all that for the time being, IW is takin' care of business in terms of The Plan - and building a formidable array of partnerships and credibility.
And as I posted on RB, every morning, I feel like a kid at Christmas, running down to the tree to see what goodies Infowave has brought. What a feeling! |
