Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Aaron Cooperband who wrote (92957)	2/14/2000 2:21:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) of 1574878

Aaron, re:<Can you explain why AMD announced a positive revenue adjustment without at the same time announcing a corresponding earnings adjustment?> This is a good question which deserves to be answered. AMD never made an earnings prediction for Q1 in any name, shape or form. But all of the analysts which Albert sent me reports about -- all of them -- expected that Q1 would be less profitable than Q4. According to Yahoo, the median expectation is 0.30 vs. 0.46 in Q4, and since a couple have already upgraded, the expectation for Q1 may have been even lower. The point is, the semiconductor business is 80% fixed cost, so it is extremely unlikely that a swing in revenues will not result in a swing in earnings. Albert sent me a new report (Friday) from Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. Here's the old estimates and new estimates for the four quarters of '00: EST. Q1....Q2....Q3....Q4 OLD 0.30 0.41 0.51 0.58 NEW 0.55 0.56 0.69 0.85 I suspect that they are basing their upgraded earnings outlook on more than just AMD's statement, such as the fact that flash prices are continuing to increase and possibly more specific info from AMD or its customers. Petz

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