> confusing brains with a bull market
An interesting phrase. I mean it, and (whoa!) do not mean by that comment to interject myself in the, ahem, debate being engaged around here recently.
The interesting thing about a bull market is what brains means may not be the same thing as what they mean in more ordinary times. For example, my dear aging mother called me a few months ago to tell me she had made $1,000 in a week investing in Intel. Isn't that wonderful? Sure I said -- what gave you that brainstorm? Oh, her former principal (Ma was an elementary school teacher). And what does Ma or the principal know about Intel or CPUs or the word "digital"? NADA. Everyone got a tip from someone else, and presto, it turns out to be the goods.
What I concluded from that (touching anecdote don't you agree? Very Will Rogers of me) is that in this lunatic market, a certain amount of principal-following IS BRAINS. I mean (oh, oh, now I WILL start a war) if brains ruled, would half the world (except me) have made fortunes in such pipe dreams as Yahoo and Amazon.com whose valuations geometrically exceed their profit potential -- if any -- for the next 50 years? I've been online for 13 years, and *I* was too smart to invest in them -- besides, I was convinced the frenzy on 'em peaked in '97... and '98.... and '99.....
Ha!
I have a better example. After 3 years, during which I turned 10k of credit card money into 6k (yes, a loss), during the past 7 weeks I changed that 6k into $25k. Bigtime, eh? And I did it by a certain deliberate mindlessness -- following people who sounded smart, or who at least worked for a principal. (I still won't buy Amazon.com, nice company though it is -- I have to draw the line somewhere).
Now (pleezee!!!) I'm not acknowledging or agreeing with any of the charges about the quality of anyone's research -- although I will say some of my investments were in stocks mentioned by this illustrious group, to which I'm attracted in part because it seems to care about old fashioned methods of determining value.
But I am calling one person here an idiot: myself.
For now, idiots rule.
and I can't wait until the opening bell.
- Charles |
