APA up $2 speaks volumes...
A balanced feel here imo... could be a bottom - for now anyway... lots of time for misquotes, spin doctoring, positioning etc prior to the Vienna meeting.
o/t Sarge - TDW's boat needs - are a positive if FGH remains in the shipbuilding business to the extent that HLX was in the business. It all depends on if they divest shipbuilding assets. But, TDW and their boat demand are not indicative of Rig demand...
TDW can build 3000 DEEPWATER boats, but if FLC still has 33 stacked offshore drilling rigs - FGH's core Rig Construction business - does not look good in the next 12+ mos. In the Street's mind - FGH is a Rig Construction Company.
Again, if you are buying FGH for the shipbuilding sector vs. them being a core Rig design & Construction company - good luck; but - I'd rather "bet" on red vs. black on the roulette table vs. if they remain in the shipbuilding business.
I'm tired of the FGH exchange Sarge - there may come a time to get on FGH; but it will be when dayrates & rig utilization pressure the market toward newbuilds - not before. FGH is surely a bottomfishing candidate; but when one factors in "risk" - it is surely NOT one of my fav's. That is has huge upside "potentially" - no one disagree's with - but, doesn't every stock that falls from the $40's to $6 have "potential" ?
It's the "risk" factor and the "unknown" factor's - that make this merely another bottomfishing "sucker's bet" for now - and "bet" is the keyword - because there are simply no fundamental signals that FGH has anything positive on the horizon and the unknown charges, losses, asset sales and continuing delay to report earnings and the unknown synergies - or failures, of the merger are yet to be determined.
SargeK; if I am wrong and you are right; then why wouldn't over 1 Million + shorts have covered here ? This has been the most profitable short in the entire Oilpatch - and 50%+ of the shorts STILL have not covered ?
Also, given that FGH is acknowledged to be dirt cheap; why the hell aren't the Institutions buying in here ? Don't you think they know if they TDW is, or isn't important news, or bullish for FGH ? - why is FGH down since the TDW news if it was good for FGH Sarge ?
Why has Institutional ownership in FGH gone down since both the announcement of the Ocean Rig settlement and the TDW news ?
Sarge - the answer is because those very Institutions have had the opportunity to do something you and I haven't been able to do; they've been able to sit down face to face with JL, with TDW, with everyone in the business who is a potential, past - present, or future customer, asset buyer, or competitor of FGH's - and their exit and the absence speaks louder than ANY words ever will.
Sarge - wake up; once shining stars of an industry do not crash & burn from $40 to $6 - then not bounce, or get institutional buying at 1/2 the original IPO price - unless there is a huge clear and present danger... Quite simply the risk factors in FGH so clearly overwhelm its valuation that the Institutional investors are staying away in droves.
I also don't give a $h!^ how much stock JL allready owns; at 1/2 the original IPO price at 1/8th is former high and 1/3 of its price 1 qtr ago - he could borrow against his existing stock - borrow must 10% against it and he could buy 1 million shares... Tell me with a straight face that ANY CEO who holds 10 Million shares; wouldn't find a way to buy another million shares at least - of a stock that is now 1/2 of its original IPO price & 1/8th of its former high - and 1/3rd of its price merely a quarter ago ? - Didn't keep GLBL's Dore from buying more... Bottomline; is the guy still has $60 M worth of stock - and I am sure, other assets; if he won't buy FGH which is 1/2 to 1/3rd of its "fair value" according to all the FGH's longs - giving him a simple double to triple return potentially; I merely ask, where else could he so easily double, or triple his money ?
Sarge; good luck - keep rolling the dice & buying lotto tickets - ie: Cityscape, HMAR, now FGH - one of these days; one of these crash & burn/bottomfish companies will recover and you'll make big money... maybe you'll never break even - but, you'll finally make a profit/money on a stock for once (VBG)...
PS - how the hell have you not wound up in a Canadian Gold/Mining stock ? - you HAD to be a Bre X (spelling ?)holder, just had too.... |
