David...
For letting you know where I am coming from,I am a short.
I saw an article in this weeks Forbes on Gentex which surely appears to be a competitor with REFR. The article is reproduced below. After the brief article, I have some questions for you or any long as I try to better understand my short position or should I just run for cover.
>>Bright Ideas
GENTEX MAKES THE REARVIEW mirrors that automatically filter the glare when the jerk behind you has his brights on. But the company has ambitious plans to extend its franchise in the light business. Ronald Tadross, a Prudential Securities analyst, says Gentex (Nasdaq: GNTX) shows great promise with light emitting diode, or LED, illuminators, which can shine an intense light without creating much heat.
The company, now trading at $30, is looking to use these things for automobile interior lighting and backseat reading lamps, as well as non-auto uses, such as airline seat lights and desk lamps. Also, Gentex wants to adapt its rearview mirror know-how to windows in buildings.
True, the company faces entrenched competition, like Hewlett-Packard in LED lighting and Pilkington in windows. But it has blown away other mammoth rivals before in rearview mirrors--notably Donnelly and Toyota--where it has an 88% market share.
Analyst Tadross expects Gentex to improve earnings per share 22%, to $1.05 in 2000, and more if the new products kick in quickly. --Josephine Lee <<
1. The article mentions competition for GNTX but does not list REFR. Any idea why?
2. GETX appears to be a very strong company in this product niche.
Stats-------GNTX----------REFR
P/B.............7...........40
P/E............32...........NA
P/S............8 .........2327
Sales........$262M........136K
Cash..........$94M........ $8M
CEO Pay.......$341K......$424K
Just looking over these stats, it seems like REFR has a very BIG hill to climb with a lot of competition. You must feel they can do it can you explain why? I know these stats are "looking into the rear view mirror" but I would be quite surprised that GNTX would not be looking at new technologies as well. With their financial resources, they could pour a lot of money into research and I would assume they do. Haven't looked this up yet.
3. Is REFR's technology so much better than GNTX so as to convince current users of their technology to convert to REFR or are they going for a totally different market niche?
I look forward to your comments.
BTW, I am not long GNTX but they sure look interesting.
Bob T. |
