Nice conversation we have going here. But the way I see it is that MSFT has some serious obstacles to overcome. A majority of corporate accounts will not even think of switching over to W2K until next year. I know several training specialists in the insurance industry and they are going to continue to purchase NT until W2K proves itself. At least a year away.
So, it is in the 2-3 year time period that W2K will have its greatest impact. In fact, it has been reported that W2K will dominate the server space in the 3-5 time frame. This would be great except for one minor detail. MSFT does not have a monopoly, as defined by the FOF, in server software as they do in the desktop. Therefore, there are alternatives that are better and cheaper. For instance, in 2-3 years Linux, most probably supplied by Redhat, will be a viable alternative and is FREE. Solaris will probably be offerred at or below W2K pricing. So what does MSFT have left? I think that W2K will be a commodity product with commodity pricing. You can pick Solaris, Linux, or W2K and each will serve their respective markets. The margins on these products are going to be small. How do you compete with FREE? MSFT needed to get this product out two years ago to make real (i.e., MSFT types of returns) for their sharholders.
IMO, W2K is a non-issue in the future of internet computing. The OS for the enterprise will be commodiditized in the time period before the product is widely accpeted. This is from a non-technical but from a marketing person who is not in the IT industry.
By the way, in the future, you will not need a OS IMO; just a browser for intranet and internet applications. An we know how much browsers cost these days. Thats my point.
Thanks for your time and I would appreciate any feedback. |
