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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)2/15/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1571436
 
semicoeng,

There are several glaring errors in your analysis.

1. Intels average ASP last quarter was in $190 range. It was up modestly from previous quarter. They shipped around 32-34M units with IABG revenues of 6.5Bn or so.

2. The IABG was the ONLY profitable group of any significance.

3. If Intel drives ASPS to $100. They will see severe declines in sales, and profits.

4. AMD with an $80 ASP had excellent profits in Q4 2000 of $0.46/share.

5. AMD will probably breakeven with ASPS of $60 or so due to SIGNIFICANT profits from flash biz.

I know that you have posted that you couldn't care less what happens to the stock price due to your $0.50 cost basis. But I suspect the major funds that back intel as a core investment would dump it in a hurry in such a scenario.

If your thinking is the pervasive thinking of Intels management then Intel is a great short at this price.

Should be interesting to see what Intel does in next few weeks.

regards,

Kash
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