Correct link to Goldman Sachs' Wireless Wave II
goldmansachs.com
Exhibit 11
Fibonacci's Favorite:
Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Growth
1991 - 1998
1991 - ( 1) 10,000,000
1992 - ( 2) 20,000,000
1993 - ( 3) 30,000,000
1994 - ( 5) 50,000,000
1995 - ( 8) 80,000,000
1996 - (13) 130,000,000
1997 - (21) 210,000,000
1998 - (24) 240,000,000
Page 12
...And They Don't Change by the Quarter
We maintain that analysts or investors who
focus obsessively on incremental changes in
market shares are missing the forest for the
trees. After dozen of years spent in
developing its IS-95 CDMA technology, Qualcomm
had gained around 1% market share globally,
and less than 10% of its chosen CDMA market.
For any supplier to profitabley gain a 1% market
share (barring the timing of booking mega-deals)
is a significant feat. We find this a particular
problem among quarterly-obsessed US-based analysts
who tend to undervalue wireless, perhaps because
they live in the slowest growing regional market.
We expect market shares to stay broadly similar
-- shifting no more than a point or two -- with the introduction of next generation technologies.
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